Albeit the disarmament debate has acquired one of key places in international politics since the first atom bomb dropped in Japan in 1945, the proliferation of nuclear weapons and technology has not stopped. The nuclear non-proliferation treaty and the comprehensive test ban treaty and a slew of other treaties, agreements and declarations notwithstanding, the prospect of a nuclear weapon free world has so far become a misnomer. However, the crucial point that needs emphasis in this connection and which further complicates the scenario is the fast rise of terrorism and religious fundamentalism in the 21st century and the possible capture of nuclear weapons including the technology by the radical elements for the fulfillment of their devious designs.
This year particularly has witnessed heated debates with rising apprehensions about the safety of nuclear weapons, especially after the incidents of attacks on nuclear installations in Pakistan. On 5 February 2009 the suspected Taliban attacked the nuclear site at Dera Ghazi Khan. This site and its adjacent compound has become the target of terrorists on many occasions. Recently on 22 October 2009 a suicide bomber exploded on being apprehended at the gate of the Kamra air weapons complex at Wah cantonment in Attock district, not far from Islamabad. It may be reassuring to listen to Pakistan leaders reiterating that the nuclear weapons are safe and well guarded, but how far and how long these weapons will remain in safe hands is a question fraught with uncertainty. With the rising Pak offensive against the Taliban in Waziristan, there is also a reciprocal rise in terror attacks in the Pak territory.
The ongoing Pak offensive has increased the prospects of likely intensification of terror attacks further, thus adding to the worries of the Pakistan leaders as well as international community about the safety of nuclear weapons in Pakistan. Earlier this year on 20 May 2009, the meeting of security chiefs of Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) in Moscow expressed concern at the proliferation of nuclear technology from Pakistan. Russian Security Council head Vladimir Nazarov observed, “The SCO states have legitimate worries that nuclear weapons in Pakistan may fall into the hands of terrorists.” Similarly speaking at the Pacific Council on International Policy, the Director of US’ Central Intelligence Agency, Leon Panetta stated on 18 May 2009 that “the last thing we want is to have the Taliban have access to nuclear weapons in Pakistan.” India too has expressed concern at the attack at the Kamra base and expressed hope that “Pakistan government will continue to take steps to effectively secure their nuclear assets.”
There are other dimensions to this emerging scenario as well. Reportedly, Pakistan has diverted part of the aids from the US to expand its nuclear facilities. The satellite pictures have shown clearly how Pakistan has developed new nuclear weapons facilities at Dera Ghazi Khan and Rawalpindi. The satellite images show a major expansion of a chemical plant complex near Dera Ghazi Khan, and development of a plutonium separation plant adjacent to the old one near Rawalpindi. Reportedly Pakistan, particularly in installing additional capacity to produce nuclear materials for weapons, has one of the fastest weaponisation programmes in the world.
In this background it appears important that the safety of nuclear weapons and technology needs to be ensured. Prospects of terrorists getting hold of these weapons and technology may not be ruled out unless urgent actions are taken well in time. As the attack on the army headquarters at Rawalpindi in early October 2009 shows the terrorists with their strategy and sophisticated technology may sneak into these facilities or may use other tactics like bribery to get hold of these nuclear weapons. As one Pak Brigadier commented “insiders in the program could be motivated by religious, monetary, revenge, grudges, jealousies, psychiatric disorders, to act against the state and become a tool of the enemy.” It may not be out context to mention here that the father of Pakistan’s atom bomb A. Q. Khan has been accused of sharing sensitive nuclear technology to other countries.
Imagining terrorists with nuclear weapons itself makes the prediction of doomsday appear so near. Imagine Al Qaeda or their fraternal groups like the Taliban, Islamic Movement of Uzbekistan, Lashkar-e-Toiba, Jaish-e-Mohammad, etc. with their cadres armed with nuclear weapons! The casualty to the humanity will multiply and be terminal, as these groups without any attachment to human values of democracy, freedom and human rights will prove fatal and target innocent civilians and institutions with all vehemence. Any capture of nuclear material by these groups would obviously nullify all the efforts towards achieving a nuclear non-proliferation regime. It will be almost impossible to achieve the goal of disarmament, once some of the nuclear buttons pass into the hands of the terrorists. Whatever the sources may be, whether Pakistan or any other, the leakage will turn the nuclear discourse on its head. The success of the terrorist ambition to have nuclear weapons would sound death knell to the initiatives for nuclear disarmament and open floodgates of nuclear attacks throughout the world.
The issue is undoubtedly complex. It is neither in compliance with international law nor with the norms of democracy to interfere in the affairs of Pakistan and dictate terms to safeguard its weapons including nuclear ones. But at the same time it remains the bounden task of the international powers to pressure Pakistan to ensure safety of its nuclear installations. If necessary, Pakistan needs to be provided with cutting edge technology to safeguard the weapons and technology. It is in the interest of Pakistan as well as the international community to safeguard the weapons as well as the technology.
Hence, the discourse on nuclear disarmament must incorporate in its ambit the safety of existing nuclear weapons and technology. Nuclear disarmament is a desired goal, but the immediate concern must be to prevent the misuse or leakage of these weapons at any cost. Such a task undoubtedly puts a heavy premium on the international bodies as well as powers besides on Pakistan.
