Having failed to occupy South Ossetia - the region which has never belonged to Georgia and is predominantly populated by Russian citizens – with the hands of Saakashvili's fascist-style commando, the US and the EU have decided to change their tactic. Washington and Brussels have realized that today’s' Russia is profoundly different from the country it used to be 15 years ago. It is clear that now it is ready to use its military might to protect its national interests and, moreover, can swiftly rout an army modeled on those of NATO, armed by weapons supplied by various countries from Germany to Albany, and generously funded from by the West (which has poured several billion dollars into the Georgian army).

For the West, the military defeat in the Caucasus was followed by a no less painful political one. The conclusions of the snap EU Summit have shown that currently the EU depends on Russia for energy so heavily that any sanctions it might impose on Moscow are sure to backfire.

At the moment, we are witnessing the onset of the third phase of the war over the Caucasus. In the nearest time, we should expect the West to make attempts to outplay Moscow in the energy business by complicating its involvement in key international oil and gas transit projects. British PM G. Brown txpressed the purpose of the campaign when he said shortly before the recent Summit that the EU should not be dependent on unstable or unreliable partners, which was primarily a reference to Russia. He stressed the urgency of Europe's energy agenda and said the EU should cultivate its relations with alternative oil and gas exporters faster.

The first step in this direction was the escalation of the pressure on Serbia aimed at making it reject the energy deal with Russia. The deal was penned in Moscow on January 25 in the presence of Serbian President B. Tadic and comprised the construction of a 400-km segment of the South Stream gas pipeline, the modernization of Serbia’s Naftna industrija Srbije (NIS) company whose controlling stake was to be acquired by Russian energy giant Gazpom, and the completion of the project to construct the Banatski Dvor Underground Gas Storage. Russia planned to invest Euro 900m – Euro 400m in cash plus Euro 500m in investments - in NIS which is currently battling a crisis. May 25 was set as the deadline for the ratification of the deal by the Serbian parliament. The ratification could become a prologue to the immediate creation of joint Russian-Serbian companies and to the beginning of the construction in the framework of the plan.

However, the ratification process stalled, mainly due to the pressure exerted by the EU. Reportedly, Europe set Serbia's refusal to cooperate with Russia in the energy sector as the condition for its EU integration. Mlađan Dinkić, the current Minister of Economy and Regional Development in the Serbian government and the top ally of Serbian President Tadic, helped the EU to accomplish its objective. Dinkić seeks a revision of the financial aspect of the deal and insists that the cost of the NIS assets is substantially higher than estimated initially. As I have learned, in the past several days the Serbian leadership made the decision to scrap the deal with Moscow. The reward was the September 3 statement by President of the European Commission José Manuel Barroso in which he told for the first time when exactly Serbia can expect to get the status of the EU candidate. According to Barroso, this can happen in 2009.

The next task faced by Tadic's camp is to dish out the decision so as not to appear responsible for the failure of the deal and thus to avoid drawing criticism from the opposition. The plan is as follows. First, the decision-making process on the issue in the parliament will be slowed down maximally and the blame for the delay will be shifted onto the opposition led by the Serbian Radical Party allegedly blocking the normal functioning of the parliament. By now this part of the plan has to an extent been fulfilled. Next, the deal will be nevertheless ratified thanks to the votes of the pro-presidential majority and the agreement will be submitted for consideration to the government headed by Mirko Cvetković, a protégé of President Tadic. The government will offer Russia to buy NIS at a much higher price than initially prescribed by the deal. The offer will be based on the estimates by Deloitte & Touche, a US company which is appraising the NIS assets for the Serbian government. Serbian media say Deloitte & Touche will suggest that the price is Euro 2.5 bn, whereas previously the figure was Euro 1.2 bn. The Serbian leadership expects Moscow to back off from the deal facing the cost which has more than doubled compared to that agreed previously. Tadic and Co will be able to claim that the important deal failed to go through due to Russia's greed.

Representatives of Gazprom Neft admit privately that the deal opens historically unprecedented opportunities to Serbia, which can become an independent player in the energy market and get a share of control over the oil and gas flows not only in the Balkans but also on the pan-European level. Moreover, this can be done entirely with Russian money, no financial contribution from Serbia being required. As for additional investments, Russia is ready to make them in case the deal is finalized and becomes the starting point of a strategic energy partnership with Serbia. But this is exactly the possibility which frightens the EU! It is afraid of a strong Russia and a strong Serbia advancing a common position in Europe. Currently Tadic, Cvetković, and Dinkić are playing against the interests of Serbia. They are the fifth column serving the forces which bombed and destroyed Yugoslavia and then tore Kosovo away from Serbia.